Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, March 2024
- Core Group International
- May 9, 2024
- 2 min read
Source: McKinsey and Company
Consumption continues to be resilient, except in Europe; central banks hold interest rates steady due to ongoing inflation risk; business survey respondents show increased confidence in economy.
Despite global uncertainty fueled by geopolitical and economic concerns, consumption among surveyed economies is holding up strongly, except in the eurozone.
This is encouraging given that consumer confidence globally looks somewhat downbeat, with the OECD indicator trending below the long-term average and dipping downward.
That said, consumer confidence in the majority of surveyed economies is oscillating just below the average, while Brazil is more positive.
Consumer confidence in Brazil has reached its highest level so far this year and is 4.0 points higher than in March 2023. Confidence rose 1.6 points to 91.3 in March, from 89.7 in February, though remaining below the neutral 100 mark. The US consumer confidence index (Conference Board) fell to 106.7 in February, down from a revised 110.9 in January.
Meanwhile, US retail and food service sales climbed to $700.7 billion, a 0.6% increase from January’s $700.2 billion.
The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers’ March 2024 data shows a decline in auto sales for February, down –5.7% versus the prior month to 370,786 (393,074 in January)—auto sales are a proxy for retail sales. In Russia, retail sales have stayed virtually unchanged for several months. Private consumption is expected to remain the main growth engine in coming months, driven by increasing incomes.
Overall, looking at the trend in consumer spending habits since the global pandemic, it is worth noting that, while spending has rebounded post-COVID-19, around a quarter of consumer spending categories remain below their December 2019 levels.
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